The economic stability of countries has a special place in the assessments of international rating agencies in recent years, against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical risks in the global economy, volatility in energy markets, and uncertainty in financial markets. In this context, the latest reports of leading global financial institutions on the Azerbaijani economy and banking system indicate that the country's financial stability is based on solid foundations. Based on the analyses of these institutions, it can be said that Azerbaijan's macroeconomic stability, high strategic foreign exchange reserves, and strong banking sector play an important role in maintaining economic stability not only domestically but also in the region.

According to the latest report by Moody's, the outlook for the Azerbaijani banking system remains 'positive'. The agency believes that the favorable operating environment in the country and state support will ensure the stability of the banking sector over the next 12–18 months.

"Favorable operating conditions will support asset quality and profitability over the next 12–18 months, while tightening regulatory requirements will help strengthen capital and improve liquidity management," the report said.

According to the agency's assessment, the high quality of assets in the banking sector is directly related to the growth and increase in income in the non-oil sector. This creates conditions for the expansion of loan portfolios and increased stability of banks.

The share of problem loans is also low compared to international standards. At the end of 2025, this indicator amounted to approximately 2.5% of the total loan portfolio, which indicates that the banking sector has a healthy financial structure.

The level of capitalization of Azerbaijani banks is also highly assessed by international agencies. Moody's noted that the ratio of core capital to risk-weighted assets of rated banks operating in the country averages 20%.

"Azerbaijan's rated banks have stable capital buffers, and internal capital formation will continue to support high capitalization," the report emphasized.

At the same time, liquidity indicators in the banking sector are also quite high. Approximately 41% of the sector's assets consist of liquid assets, which creates an additional safety buffer against external financial shocks.

S&P Global Ratings also emphasizes the stability of the Azerbaijani banking sector and predicts that lending will maintain a stable growth rate in the coming years. According to the agency's calculations, the annual growth rate of lending in the country from 2026 through 2027 may amount to approximately 10–12%. The report noted that the modernization of regulation in the banking sector in recent years has significantly contributed to the reduction of risks:

"We believe that banking risks in Azerbaijan have decreased due to initiatives aimed at modernizing regulation and supervision," the report explained.

This process includes steps such as the transition to a risk-based control model, strengthening corporate governance standards, and the introduction of international financial reporting standards.

The overall development prospects of the Azerbaijani economy are also positively assessed by international analysts.

According to the forecast of ING Group analysts, real GDP growth in the country may be 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Growth will be ensured mainly due to the expansion of the non-oil sector. The development of transport and logistics infrastructure, renewable energy projects, and large-scale reconstruction work in the Karabakh region also contribute to this process.

Azerbaijan's strategic foreign exchange reserves are also considered one of the main factors of economic stability. At the end of 2025, the country's strategic reserves exceeded $85 billion, which is significantly higher than international adequacy standards.

The Azerbaijani government has identified diversification of the economy and the transition to a high-tech development model as one of its priority areas.

"Diversification of the economy is the basis of our strategic goals, and the non-oil and gas sector has already become the main driver of economic growth." Minister of Economy Mikayil Jabbarov noted in his speech on this topic.

According to the minister, in recent years, the average annual real growth in the non-oil sector has been 5.9%, and the share of this sector in GDP increased from 58.3% in 2018 to 71.5% in 2025.

Overall, these changes indicate that the structural transformation of the Azerbaijani economy is proceeding rapidly.

The stability of the Azerbaijani economy is of great importance not only within the country, but also for the region. Developments in the energy, logistics, and financial sectors create new economic opportunities for the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. For example, transport and logistics projects - in particular, the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route - contribute to the diversification of trade between Europe and Asia. This strengthens regional economic integration and allows international supply chains to become more sustainable. In addition, foreign investments attracted to energy and renewable energy projects create new investment flows and technology transfer opportunities for the countries of the region.

However, it's also important to take into account that global geopolitical processes also have a certain impact on the economic indicators of the countries of the region. According to the assessment of analysts at ING Group, the increase in oil and gold prices on world markets against the backdrop of the aggravation of the military situation in the Middle East may provide short-term support to Azerbaijan's external balance.

Analysts note that a sustained increase in the price of oil by $10 per barrel increases Azerbaijan's export revenues by about $3 billion, which means an additional economic impact of about 4% of the country's GDP. In terms of budget, such an increase can bring about $1.5 billion in additional funds to state revenues.

At the same time, experts note that Azerbaijan's strong financial reserves and stable macroeconomic policy allow limiting the impact of global geopolitical risks on the economy.

Assessments by global rating agencies show that the Azerbaijani economy is currently becoming one of the most stable financial systems in the region due to its stable macroeconomic policy, strong financial reserves, and stable banking sector. Energy resources, developing transport and logistics infrastructure, and a growing non-oil sector strengthen the country as an important economic bridge between Europe and Asia. In this regard, the economic and financial stability of Azerbaijan is of strategic importance not only for national development, but also for the economic security of the region and the stability of global trade routes.