Kazakhstan’s banking sector is expected to remain resilient in 2026, supported by the country’s continued economic expansion, specifically 5.6% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, Trend reports via Fitch Ratings.
According to the organization, both stronger oil output and steady development outside Kazakhstan's mining industry will help underpin financial results.
Despite pressures on interest margins and a slowdown in consumer lending growth, overall profitability is expected to remain strong. Fitch highlights that high policy rates, manageable credit costs, and ample opportunities for loan issuance will continue to support revenue generation.
The agency further anticipates that banks will sustain solid capital and liquidity positions. The sector’s average Tier 1 capital ratio is projected to remain near 20%, supported by robust earnings and moderate growth in risk-weighted assets. Liquidity buffers are expected to stay substantial, bolstered by significant holdings of high-quality liquid securities, while limited reliance on wholesale borrowings reduces refinancing risks.
However, certain regulatory factors may slightly hinder performance. Recent macroprudential measures aimed at curbing retail lending are already dampening risk-taking appetite, and the gradual increase in reserve requirements through the third quarter of 2026 may raise funding costs and exert downward pressure on margins.
