In the context of the rapid transformation of the global system, when traditional trade routes are being disrupted and the balance of power between global and regional players is becoming increasingly unpredictable, the importance of "middle-tier" states is growing dramatically. These countries are increasingly becoming not objects, but active architects of regional stability, transit, energy security, and political dialogue between competing centers of power.
The South Caucasus today is a space where interests, risks, and opportunities intersect, where geography is once again playing a decisive role. Against a backdrop of conflicts, sanctions, and crises of trust, foreign policy models based on flexibility, pragmatism, and strategic autonomy are attracting particular attention. In this context, the experience of Azerbaijan is particularly interesting—as an example of a state forging its own course of action in a complex environment of major power rivalry, while maintaining its ability to influence regional and global processes.
AZERTAC presents an interview with American expert on geopolitics and geoeconomics Nicholas Gvozdev.
- Azerbaijan occupies a strategic position between East and West, at the intersection of the interests of Russia, Türkiye, Iran, the EU, and the US. How do you assess Azerbaijan's geopolitical role in the context of contemporary global politics and great power competition?
- Azerbaijan is one of the most important keystone states in the world today. It is the linchpin of both the Middle Corridor as well as the North-South Corridor. It is also one of the world's leading "middle powers" with a good deal of military and economic capability, so it can negotiate with its neighbors from a position of strength. One key driver of policy has been to embrace neutrality in the best sense of the word--open to good, productive relations with all major states and blocs, but not dependent on any of them for its own security.
This neutrality--combined with the capacity to keep open a major economic zone of the world for commerce and trade--is all the more important given the developments of the past two years. The Russia-Ukraine war has severed many of the direct connections between Europe and Eurasia. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have interrupted commerce going through the Red Sea, also impacting trade between Asia and Europe. In such conditions of uncertainty, the Middle Corridor becomes even more critical to the stability of the global economy.
- The South Caucasus has been going through a difficult period in recent years, from the end of a major conflict to attempts to normalize relations between neighbors. What challenges and opportunities do you see today for sustainable regional security?
- An unfortunate trend that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union thirty years ago was the belief that a country could only advance at the expense of its neighbors--and that politics was a zero-sum gain where for one side to benefit, another must lose. Normalization offers the possibility for all the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to realize that cooperation benefits everyone. It also reduces the opportunities for outside powers to play off one country against another.
The challenge with the current peace process is to build "integrative power"--to build up mutually beneficial relationships that generate real, tangible benefits for the citizens. Here, the extent to which the South Caucasus looks at the model of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a way to develop cooperation--and to be able to bargain with larger powers as a bloc--may be the next step forward.
- Azerbaijan is actively developing relations with various international actors, from the EU and the US to countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. What factors, in your opinion, determine the success of the multi-vector foreign policy of middle powers today?
- A critical test is that Azerbaijan does not allow any one country or bloc to dictate how it can interact with other countries and blocs. Azerbaijan is one of the few countries that is expanding its cooperation with the West while not sacrificing its beneficial relations with Russia; has ties with Iran, the Gulf States and Türkiye and reaches out to China and India. Azerbaijan insists on the principle of non-interference in how it carries out its foreign affairs which has served it well.
I think that there is a recognition that securing the Middle Corridor--which is vital to getting the resources, minerals and energy that the West needs for its economies--and thus for its security--requires understanding and supporting Azerbaijan's multi-vector approach.
- Azerbaijan is an important player in the energy market, supplying oil and gas to Europe and other regions. How can Azerbaijan's energy policy contribute to strengthening its strategic position on the global stage?
- Energy drives the Fourth Industrial Revolution--and without energy a country cannot develop or meet its basic needs. With so many other energy transit routes broken (as in the case of the NordStream pipelines) or imperiled (as in the Straits of Hormuz), Azerbaijan becomes the reliable energy keystone state, not only for its own energy production but for sending onward the energy of much of Eurasia in a safe, secure fashion.
- In today's environment, many countries face hybrid threats, from cyberattacks to information campaigns. What mechanisms for strategic resilience in national security would you recommend to countries in the region, including Azerbaijan?
- Resilience comes from self-sufficiency and having backups and options. Overdependence on any one outside source--whether for technology, food, financial services, etc. creates vulnerabilities. Regional cooperation to secure the entire infrastructure of the Middle Corridor is necessary, which is why I see the ASEAN model as important for Azerbaijan's future. Here, the role played by the Port of Baku--as an intermodal link for all sorts of transit--becomes critical.
- What prospects do you see for developing multilateral cooperation between the countries of the South Caucasus, and how can Azerbaijan benefit as a regional partner?
- The countries of the region need to embrace an organic model of integration--and this starts with embracing their position as the center of the Black-Caspian Sea macro-region. In other words, the goal of the countries of the Caucasus is not to "join" another region (Europe, the Middle East, etc.) but to see their geography as forming a distinct entity that is not a subsidiary to some larger part of the world.
